苹果iphone8销售遇冷，对国产手机来说可能也是个坏消息

iphone8xilieshangshiyuleng，shipingguoqijinweizhizaoyudeyicizhongchuang。weici，pingguoshizhiyijingzhengfale500yimeiyuan，zheixiangdangyuebay、tjx、northrop grummanhuofuteqichegongsidequanbushenjia。yuzhixiangfan，youxiaoxishishidepilucheng，vivo x20fabuhuihoujinyitianzaijingdongdeyuyuerenshuyichaoguo20wan，lianxujitiandengshangweiboresou，yipaihuobaozhongguodejingxiang。

suizheduipingguo“mingrihuanghua”、“huihuangnanxu”debaodaocengchubuqiongdiyuerurenmenshiye。yishijiansuoyoudexiaoxisihudoumingqueleyigefangxiang：guochanshoujizhongyudaoleyangmeituqideshihou。zheiyeshihenduorezhongdaguochanpaiderenleyujiandaoherentongde。

danzaiguoneishoujixingyeyipianxiqing、jiebaopinchuandetongshi，suoyourenkeyihulveyigezhidesikaodewenti，neijiushi，pingguozuoweidangdaizhinengshoujidebiaogan，rujintaxianyubeidongdejumian，duiyuzhenggexingyedaodiyiweizheshenme?nandaojinjinshipingguozijidechuangxinfali?youhuozhezhendeshiguochanshoujidechuntian?

guochanjinengchaoyuepingguo?weixiaolianglunduipingguobushiyong

congquanqiushoujixingyedehongguanjiaodulaikan，pingguohaowuyiwenshizhinengjidexianfeng，qitaxiaofenduichangchangzhinengweisuiqihou，zheizhonggejuxiangduichixuleduonian，jishizaiguochanshoujijuliebianhuadeshijianneiyemeinenghandongpingguodeweizhi，muqianyiranruci。

lilunshang，ruguobaxingyeshilijiandanhuafenweipingguoheqitadehua，jiashezaizuijinjinianpingguoshishi，quanqiuzhinengshoujishichangfashenggenbenxinggaibian，paokaisanxing，pingguobeiguochanjiganchaojibenshangzhiyouliangzhongkeneng:

yize，qitoubingjinzhixia，pingguosuduhuanmanshenzhihoutui，guochanshoujipinpaichaoyuepingguo，zhujianqudaipingguodingyishoujixingyedeguanjiandiwei。erze，pingguojibentingzhiyumougeshuipingxianshang，guochanshoujichangshangjianjianganshang，yuqizhanzailexiangtongweizhi。danyijiuwufachaoyueta。

zheiliangzhongqingkuangdoudaibiaozheguochanshoujichedibaituopingguodeyinying，buguoshijiyiyiqueqianchawanbie。qianzheduiguochanjilaijiangjiedahuanxi，yinweiyidanqizhongyouyigepochupingguodeshenhua，jiuhenyoukenengdanshengdiergechaoyuepingguodepinpai。zheishiwushushoujichangshangdemengxiang。

houzheshigexiangduibaoshoudejieguo，danyinhandexinxiyuanbiganshangpingguoyaolingrenxinjing，yinweizheizhongzhuangkuangyiweizhezhenggexingyezhangqixianrupingjingqi，shenzhishidadaolepubianyiyishangdejixian，erpingguoshizuizaochupengzheigejiexiandeyige。

yimuqiankuangrezhuipengguochanshoujideqingxingkan，guorenjiangxiwangjituoyudiyizhongkenengxing，danjiumuqiandexingshilaikan，bijiaoxianshideqiaqiashilingyizhong。

zheizhuyaoshiyinweizaiguoduxuanranpingguoheguochanjideliangjishichangbiaoxianxia，miaosushishizhuceduiyuchajuzongshichanshengyizhongcuojue，ziyiweichaoyuepingguozhishishijianshangdeshi，danlixinglaikan，ruciqingxinggengxiangshiwangshanpaosima，jiaxiangraoluanzhengchangshiyexiadeyixiangqingyuanbale，erqiezheigejiaxianghenkenenglaiyuanyuduiweixiaolianglundedanyichongbai。

yihuaweiweili，yonghuduitadejibenrenzhizhuyaoyouminzupinpai、jinciyupingguodeshijiedisandashoujichangshang，yeshizuiyoukenengchaoyuepingguodeguochanxiwang，erzheixierenzhidezhuyaoyijuyoushishenmeni?daanshixiaoliang。shenzhikeyishuofangyanguoneizhenggeshichanggejudebianhua，jibenshangdoushiyixiaolianglunchengbai，bijinglirun、yingxiangliyijiweilaiqianjing，doushihexiaoliangzhijieguagou，danshizheizhongjielunfangzaipingguoshenshangjiuxiangdangbuheshi。

yinweipingguoshoujidelirunyijingyuanyuangaochujihusuoyoudeshoujipinpaishang。biruzaiguoqude2016nian，quanqiuzhinengshoujixingyedezonglirunwei537yimeiyuan，erpingguojinkaoiphonejiunazouleqizhongde449yimeiyuan， zhandaolezhenggexingyelirunde79%。erpingguoiphonezai2016niandexiaoliangshi2.1yitai，zaizhenggeshoujixingyezhongdexiaoliangzhanbiwei14.5%。pingguoiphonedeyinglinenglizhigaokejianyiban。

congzheigecengmianshangjiang，weixiaolianglunbenzhishangzhishiyizhongchulepingguozhiwaideqitashoujipinpaidekuanghuan。pingguosuiranshisuoyouzhinengshoujipinpaidediren，dantazhenzhengdedirenzhiyouziji。

xitongshishoujijutougengdiedehexinyaosu，eriosnanyoudishou

ruguoxiaoliangdechajuzhishiguochanjichaoyuepingguodediyidaohonggou，neimeanzhaoxingyedelirunbilihuafen，yaoxiangdachengquanmiandabaipingguodemubiao，haobukeqidishuo，qimahaiyousishijiuzhongguan。

erpingguodeiosshengtai，duiyuzhuduozhishanzhangpinpeizhideguochanshoujilaishuo，gengjiananyiyuyue。huoxuanzhuoxitongdekaifangqueshizhengjiulechupingguozhiwaideqitashouji，danbukefourenwulunhouqiyouhuadadaohezhongshuiping，youyuqikaiyuandebenzhi，haishiheiosxitongchalehenduo，chufeiguochanjinenggoulingxingkaifachuyitaotiyangengjiadexinxitong，yaoburanzhiwanganzhuochedichaoyueiosjibenwuwang。

dangranhenduorenrenweijishibuyilaiqiangyupingguodexitong，guochanjihesanxinghaishipingjieyingjianxingnengtishengheqitashouduan，congyiqiongerbaidezuzhuangjifazhandaochengweipingguodejingdi，weilaiweichangbuketongguozizhuxinpian、shexiangtoudengyuanqijian，zouchuyitiaoyingjianweiwangdedaolu，congerwandaochaoche。

jiuxingyexingshilaijiang，zheidianwuyiyuyixiangtiankai，youqishizairuanjianfuwuyingshouzhujianchengweipingguoxiaoliangxiahuahoudexinliangdian，quyingjianhuajiangbianweizhongzhongzhizhongdeqingkuangxia。erqiezhinengshoujixitongzaichanpingaigeguochengzhongdehexinzuoyong，sihuyejuedinglexitongbubeiqudaideqingkuangxia，pingguohennanjinjinbeiyingjiandadao。

回顾手机行业的变迁，由功能机更迭为半智能机，再由半智能机升级为智能机，具体表现在手机厂商中，则是诺基亚取代了摩托罗拉，而苹果为首的智能机更替掉了诺基亚，这种手机进化史的背后莫不都是以系统的变化作为基点。

birunuojiyayibubucuobaimotuoluoladeguochengzhong，saibanxitongqidaolejuedingxingzuoyong，bingqiepingjiedangshitashifenchusedetiyan，nuojiyadeyitongzhixinxingdezhinengshoujishichang。ersuihoudabainuojiyadetongyangshixinyidaidezhinengxitong，baokuoiosxitongheanzhuoxitong，qianzheyunyulepingguofengbiqiangdadeshengtailian，houzhezhujianchengweizuiliuxingdecaozuoxitongcongerbidenuojiyafangqisaiban。

xitongde“gaichaohuandai”zhijiecuishenglezhenggeshoujishichangdejudabiange，zheishijinershinianlaixingyebiandongjiwaijiezuizhiguanderenzhi，youcikanlai，anzhuoruguowufachaoyueiosyejiuyiweizhedazaianzhuoxitongdeshoujiwufadabaipingguo。

chucizhiwai，zaizheichangruanjianheyingjiandeqianzaiduikangzhong，bunanfaxian，quanqiuyingjianzhizaojutoupinpinshuaitui，erruanjiangongsideshengmingzhouqiyaozhangdeduo，zuimingxiandejiushipcshidaidehuipu、daierdengzhizaoshangheweiruan、jiaguwendengruanjiangongsi。shizhijinri，jishishipingguoyechuxianleyingjiangaoji、ruanjianzhichengdequshi，zheisihudouzaianshidanchunpinyingjiandegongsinanyizhangjiu。

erguochanjixianzaijibenshangzhinengdadaoyingjianxingnengshangzuowenzhangdejibie，zhisuoyimuqianmeiyoumingxiandebulijixiang，huoxuzhishiyinweirengjiuchuzaiyingjianmoulidezengzhangqinei，danruoshiweilaishoudaomouzhongchongji，kongpashoudangqichongdebingbushipingguo，ershiguochanpinpai。

biegaoxingtaizao，pingguoyulengduizhenggexingyelaishuobushihaoshi

paichuqitayinsu，keguanshangjiang，zailirun、xitonghetiyansanfangmian，wulunshisanxinghaishiyizhongguochanshouji，dounanyizaiduanshijianneichaoyuepingguo，yejiushishuodanchundexiaoliangyoushengjishizaiweilaijinianneifasheng，yebuzuyidadepingguomeiyouhaishouzhili。

zaiguochanjibaochiyipainizhengwodou、zhengzhengrishangdebiaoxiangxia，jiashangaiguoqinghuaideshiran，putongxiaofeizhezhisuoyijuedehepingguodechajuyijingsuoxiaodaokeyikuayuedechengdu，zhuyaoyuanyinzaiyu，guochanshoujijibenshangnenggoumanzuyonghushiyongxuqiudeqingkuangxia，jiashangzaimouxiexingnengshangqueshizuodexiangdangjizhi，jiyuduiziwoxuanzederenkehemanyi，xiaofeixinlihennanbuqingxiangyuwofang，ziranjiuhuipaichipingguo。

erzhenzhengzhidezhuyideshi，pingguozuoweizhenggeshoujixingyedebiaoganhetianhuaban，qimuqiandetingzhiqi，jiyoukenengyedaibiaozhezhenggexingyedepingjing：rujinjielianjikuanchanpindoumeiyouchurenyiliaodezhongdabiange，danqitapinpaiqueyijiuwufachaoyue，zheishifouyushizhepingguoyijingchujilezhinengshoujichuangxindemoutiaojiexian?

shouxianbunengpaichupingguozishendejuxian。wuyongzhiyi，shiquqiaobusizhihou，pingguodengtongyusunshilechuangxinlidezuizhongyaolaiyuan，buguoyonghuduitaderenzhiqueyizhitingliuzaidianfuzhedejiaose，zheizhongjigaoqiwanghekukexiangduibaoshoudechanpinshejiyiranxingchengchongtu。jiandanyidianlaijiang，shijieshangzaiwuqiaobusi，yiduitadechongbaiqubiaobangxianyoudepingguo，nanmianhuiyouluocha。

但抛开内因，其实可以发现智能手机行业的整体状况才是限制苹果的关键。

yifangmian，kaolvdaozhinengjimengyahefazhanjieduandebutong，waijieduizhinengjifangfangmianmiandelejiekendingshizhucengjiashende，suoyibuxiangdangchuxingyechuxingzhishi，nengkandongweilaifangxiangdehuoxuzhiyouqiaobusihuozheshuopingguogongsi。xianzaizuoshoujidebibijieshi，jiyuxianyoujishutuicechupingguodegaigefangxiang，yijingxiangduirongyi。zheizhongqingkuangzhixia，pingguodechuangxinganjiubeisuoxiaole。

lingyifangmian，zaikeyucedejigedaozhishoujichanshengzhongdabiangefangxiangzhong，jihudoupengdaolejishuzhigu。birurengongzhineng、ar/vr、quanxitouying、dianchixuhang、pingmuzhediedengfangmian，qianchedegegexingyezishendouhaimeiyoujinzhan，youhetanyingyongyushouji?

zaikanpingguojinjinianbuduanshenqingdechaoqianzhuanliheweicishougoudegongsi，muqianhenshaoyouxiaoxitouluchuzhongdatupo，kejianchulejiangxianyoudexingnenggaishanhuoshipaoqi，pingguoyeyijingbiewutafa。

zuoweizhinengshoujidezhixiangbiao，yidingchengdushang，pingguofalizeyushizhexingyefali。muqianpingguoipnoe8deyuleng，bunanbaozhengjiushishuomingshoujixingyeyijingzishangerxiakaishifali，jinrupingjingqi。zheizuyiyinqizhenggeguochanshoujixingyedejingti。

sixinerlun，guochanshoujiruoshinengxianqizhinengjishidaideyouyicishengji，ziranshihuanxinguwudeshi，kejinpingxianzaidechengjiu，haishibuyaogaoxingtaizao，bijingmanzhangpingjingqikaoyandeshichubeishili，zaizheidianshang，miaosushishizhucehaiyaozhuiganpingguohenjiu。